As the winter chill begins to thaw, the global film industry is heating up with a high-stakes “February Sprint” that feels more like a summer blockbuster season than a mid-winter lull. With prestige dramas, high-octane thrillers, and a heavy-hitting horror sequel all jockeying for position, 2026 is already shaping up to be a record-breaking year at the box office.
The February Sprint: Romance vs. Adrenaline
This year, the weekend of February 13 is the centerpiece of the industry’s strategy. Studios are banking on a “barbell” approach: offering high-concept prestige romance for some, and gritty, star-led action for others.
1. Wuthering Heights: The Heavyweight Contender
Emerald Fennell’s “Wuthering Heights” is the most anticipated release of the month. Starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, the film is tracking for a massive opening weekend, with industry analysts predicting a domestic haul north of $50 million.
What makes this release particularly interesting is its global appeal. While the marketing has leaned into the “dark romance” aesthetic, early reviews from London and Los Angeles suggest the film is a visually stunning, provocative reinvention that will likely have “long legs” throughout the spring. It is a calculated gamble by Warner Bros. to release a Gothic tragedy during the Valentine’s window, but with Robbie’s star power, it seems destined to pay off.
2. Crime 101: The Action Alternative
For those who prefer a heist over a heartbreak, Amazon MGM’s “Crime 101” arrives on the same day. Starring Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry, and Mark Ruffalo, this adaptation of Don Winslow’s novella is a classic “cat-and-mouse” thriller set along the Pacific Coast Highway.
The box office outlook for Crime 101 is steady. It’s aiming for a $20M–$25M opening, targeting an older demographic that might be less inclined toward Fennell’s stylized Gothicism. This is a crucial test for Amazon MGM as they continue to push for theatrical dominance alongside their streaming presence.
Mid-Month: The Genre Powerhouses
As we move into the second half of February, the variety of the “Sprint” becomes even more apparent.
3. How to Make a Killing: The A24 Dark Horse
On February 20, A24 drops “How to Make a Killing,” a black comedy/thriller starring the man of the hour, Glen Powell. Following his meteoric rise over the last two years, Powell is a proven box-office draw. The film—a cynical, sharp-edged story about an outcast attempting to reclaim a wealthy inheritance—is generating significant “word-of-mouth” buzz.
While its opening might be more modest (around $10M–$12M), A24 films are known for their endurance. Expect this to be the “cool” pick of the month that stays in the top five for weeks.
4. I Can Only Imagine 2: The Faith-Based Factor
Lionsgate is returning to a proven winner with “I Can Only Imagine 2” (Feb 20). The original 2018 film was a sleeper hit that earned over $83 million domestically. The sequel, focusing on the later life and spiritual challenges of MercyMe’s Bart Millard, is expected to tap into a very loyal, underserved audience. Analysts are predicting a strong $20M+ opening, proving that “niche” programming can often outperform traditional blockbusters.
The Grand Finale: Ghostface Returns
The month concludes with a literal scream. On February 27, “Scream 7” hits theaters, and the hype is nearly uncontainable.
5. Scream 7: Legacy and New Blood
Directed by original creator Kevin Williamson, this installment sees the return of Neve Campbell as Sidney Prescott. The narrative hook—Ghostface now targeting Sidney’s daughter—has resonated deeply with both legacy fans and the “Gen Z” audience that revitalized the franchise in 2022.
Predicting the box office for Scream 7 is an exercise in optimism. With Scream VI having cleared the $100M domestic mark, expectations for the seventh chapter are even higher. It is currently tracking for a $45M–$55M opening weekend, which would make it one of the most successful horror openings in years.
Box Office Trend Report: February 2026
| Film | Release Date | Expected Opening | Target Audience |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wuthering Heights | Feb 13 | $50M – $55M | Romance / Prestige Drama |
| Crime 101 | Feb 13 | $20M – $25M | Action / Thriller Fans |
| GOAT | Feb 13 | $15M – $18M | Families / Kids | How to Make a Killing | Feb 20 | $10M – $12M | Indie / Powell Stans |
| I Can Only Imagine 2 | Feb 20 | $20M – $22M | Faith-based / Musical | Scream 7 | Feb 27 | $45M – $55M | Horror / Legacy Fans |
The “Auteur” vs. The “IP”
This month shows a healthy balance. We have Emerald Fennell and Bart Layton delivering director-driven visions (Wuthering Heights, Crime 101), while Scream and I Can Only Imagine represent the power of the established brand.
Interestingly, the “Star Power” factor is at an all-time high. The success of this month depends heavily on the “Reliables”: Margot Robbie, Glen Powell, and Chris Hemsworth. In a post-streaming-war world, these names are the “security guards” of the theatrical experience.
Final Take: The Must-Watch List
If you only have time for two movies this month, the consensus is clear:
